Maybe the only unexpected element of Hearts' victory over the Glasgow giants in the Scottish Premiership was just how surprised observers seemed when news of the result and its consequences for the top of the table emerged. While this 3-1 win at Tynecastle, which puts the Edinburgh side leading of the table and eight points clear of Celtic, was seismic in scale, nobody who has been following the progress of both squad this season will have been in the least astonished by the final score.
Over the past four decades, the Glasgow duopoly of the Old Firm have divided the Scottish league between them, turning the beautiful game to almost a joke in the meantime. Nine games into the current campaign it has become clear that Hearts – who number Stephen Hendry, Olympic champion and renowned actor among their celebrity fans – could be prepared to strike while the Glasgow duo iron is at its weakest.
Although a lot of the focus in Scotland has been on the disastrous season being suffered by the Ibrox club, the complete turmoil of the circumstances at their stadium has resulted in that the title holders' comparatively less severe decline has been able to worsen below the radar. The defending title winners have already lost 10 points from their opening nine fixtures this term under their manager. The Celtic manager has acquired the distant look of a man who constantly consulting his Google calendar to see how many time are left until his contract expires, and awoke this day to learn the answer is over two hundred.
"I've never worked harder in all my time at the club," he informed reporters following the defeat, after they had questioned his desire for any kind of a championship battle. "Therefore the drive is there to try and flip the standards that we're at. It's absolutely fine, it's still so early."
Given the horrific start to the campaign being endured by Rangers, Rodgers and his men could typically be anticipated to get away with their own failure to roar out of the traps, but this year an capital city challenger has joined the fray. Despite being obliged to function with a budget that isn't so much a small portion of Celtic's as a minuscule amount in comparison, Hearts have added the investment and knowledge of a renowned businessman to the Scottish Premiership equation. In addition to investing £10m during the summer, the Brighton owner has granted Hearts exclusive use of his highly confidential data-driven proprietary scouting recruitment tool.
In Oisin McEntee, a Greek talent and Cláudio Braga it has enabled them to discover unpolished gems from Walsall, the Slovakian top flight and the Norwegian second tier, among other lesser-known leagues, for the total price of a mid-range family saloon. Spotted at Tynecastle on Sunday wearing a Hearts scarf, the famously shrewd professional gambler could be seen cheering each score with the enthusiasm of a person who had likely noticed the bookies had greatly misjudged his side's prospects of beating the struggling title holders, and filled his boots as a result.
"In my opinion it's a statement win," said bearded Hearts gaffer Derek McInnes after his team's most recent victory, their eighth win in nine league matches. "It might be for those on the outside looking in. It might change opinions. It might validate views that there's a fine line. But let's not kid ourselves, we are delighted with what the lads have provided us. In terms of skill, we appear in a good place, and certainly in fitness we look in a good place, so we hope it persists. Of course, it's not a position that the team is used to being in." Correct, the manager, it isn't. But the glorious, data-driven reality is that for the initial occasion in many years, Scottish football might genuinely have a championship battle that a team besides Celtic or Rangers can claim.
Lena Hartwell is a former statistician and lottery enthusiast who now writes about probability and smart play strategies.