The US Secretary of the Army, Dan Driscoll, was an surprising envoy for the White House's newest initiative to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. Driscoll's strong connection with Vice President Vance has positioned a close associate of the Eurosceptic VP at the forefront of Donald Trump recent effort to settle the war.
Before his recent trip to Kyiv, Driscoll was not known as a mediator or statesman, and his early efforts to promote the agreement to officials in Europe were described as turbulent.
His close relationship with Vance, who he studied and shares a close friendship, indicate the resurgence of the non-interventionist vice-president in talks to resolve the Ukraine crisis.
This was Vance who stepped in during Ukraine's president's disastrous initial trip to the White House in March and demanded he show Trump more courtesy. Currently, Ukraine is once again resisting demands from the US to accept a swift settlement that Ukrainian leaders have described as a capitulation.
After a tumultuous first year in power, international decisions in the White House are said to be shaped by a handful of Trump's key advisers, such as top aide Susie Wiles, rightwing adviser Stephen Miller, envoy Steve Witkoff, State Department head Marco Rubio, and finally Vance.
Vance has been a vocal advocate of the latest plan, which was developed by Witkoff and Trump's relative Jared Kushner, alongside the Russian diplomat Kirill Dmitriev.
“All objection of the peace framework the administration is developing either misunderstands the framework or misrepresents some key reality on the ground,” Vance stated.
Vance's initial efforts at negotiating a ceasefire agreement with Russia, while also seeking to renew relations with Moscow, were fruitless and left his team feeling disappointed with their Russian counterparts. Leaders in Europe, meanwhile, were irritated by his early speeches, in which he charged them of running from their constituents, who Vance claimed held anti-immigration and conservative positions similar to those of Trump's own constituency.
But, the recently published ceasefire proposal closely resembled his stances, and he has been one of the most forceful spokespeople for the agreement in the government, even as the US has been criticized for endorsing a peace framework that largely resembles Vladimir Putin's maximalist demands.
In social media updates this weekend, Vance argued that a peace deal would have to establish a truce that respected Ukrainian sovereignty, be acceptable to both sides, and prevent the war from resuming.
“A ceasefire will not be made by unsuccessful diplomats or officials living in a dream world,” he added. “It could be made by intelligent people living in the real world.”
Additionally, it was Vance who continued on the introduction of the ceasefire proposal in a conversation with Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump had primarily instructed his team with obtaining a agreement on the ceasefire accord before Thanksgiving this week in the United States.
That was a distinctly more full-throated support of the plan than that given by the top diplomat and national security adviser, Marco Rubio, a more conventional hawk in the administration who has gone from a shaky position inside the White House to more stable footing.
Rubio was part of a US team that went to Geneva this past weekend to confer with Ukrainian officials to help moderate the initial 28-point peace plan in order to make it more acceptable to leaders in Kyiv.
But, his first response to the deal was tepid:
“Stopping a complex and deadly war such as the one in Ukraine demands an thorough discussion of serious and realistic proposals,” Rubio wrote recently. “And, securing a lasting ceasefire will require each party to consent to difficult but necessary compromises. This is the reason we are and will continue to develop a list of possible solutions for resolving this conflict based on feedback from each party of this conflict.”
In private, he was said to be much more doubtful of the plan. The GOP lawmaker Mike Rounds stated last week at the Halifax International Security Forum in Nova Scotia that Rubio had called lawmakers to explain that the agreement was merely a preliminary proposal from the Russians and not an initiative advocated by the White House.
“The Secretary made a phone call to us this day and I believe he made it very clear to us that we are the recipients of a proposal that was delivered to one of our representatives,” stated Rounds. “It is not our recommendation, it is not our peace plan.”
Rubio moved quickly to align himself. “The peace proposal was authored by the US,” he subsequently stated. “It is offered as a strong framework for ongoing negotiations. The proposal is derived from input from the Russian side. But, it is also informed by previous and current contributions from Ukraine.”
Lena Hartwell is a former statistician and lottery enthusiast who now writes about probability and smart play strategies.