Conflict-ravaged Burma Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised 'Sham' Election.

Polling materials in Myanmar
The country's military is holding a phased election over the next month.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a farce, with key opposition groups banned, numerous figures imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unable to participate because of an ongoing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is holding a staggered election nearly five years after it took control in a coup, which ignited massive protests and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the costly stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for interfering with or opposing the polls under a new law which imposes severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a film endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, pointing out that armed rebel groups have made warnings asking people to shun the polls.

The military has been engaged on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge logistical challenge for holding an election.

A Restricted Poll

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it difficult to predict a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will contest only at the local levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while others are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the results in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has called for political dialogue to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not being held for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "the path to democracy".

Michael Gill
Michael Gill

Lena Hartwell is a former statistician and lottery enthusiast who now writes about probability and smart play strategies.