China Dispatches Coast Guard Vessels to Senkaku Islands During Tensions with Japan

China has deployed its coast guard through the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near outlying Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up strains over the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the latest activity occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, the Japanese official, addressed lawmakers that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and citizens overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was likely the coast guard, active near the island over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are not rare, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted the island had dispatched military assets to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her remarks, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards the island.

Michael Gill
Michael Gill

Lena Hartwell is a former statistician and lottery enthusiast who now writes about probability and smart play strategies.